滑坡预测预报的地质-气象耦合模型研究

通过将地质环境条件和降雨条件相结合的方法，建立了基于地质一气象耦合的区域地质灾害预警预报模型．模型在区域地质灾害空间预测的基础上，结合实时的气象动态信息，研究在不同地质环境和不同气象条件下地质灾害发生的规律；这有助于提高区域型滑坡的预报精度．以浙江省永嘉县为例，通过建立的滑坡(泥石流)空间预测模型对研究区进行灾害危险性预测分区，然后将危险性预测分区图与降雨量图叠加确定预警预报区．同时确定了区域性滑坡的临界降雨量和降雨强度阀值，建立了区域滑坡灾害的宏观预警模型．

Geological condition and weather couple model of landslide hazard forecast

A forecasting and warning model of regional geo-hazard is established based on the coupling of geology-meteorology through the combination of the geological settings and the precipitation conditions. On the basis of the spatial forecast for the regional geo-hazard, the occurrence law of the geo-hazard under various geological settings and precipitation conditions is studied with the model combined with the real-time weather information; with which the precision of the regional landslide forecast can be improved as well. Taking Zhejiang Province as an example, the target area for the study is zoned by the hazard prediction with spatial forecast model developed for the landslide(debris flow), and then the forecasting and warning zones are determined with superposing the precipitation map over the hazard zone forecasting map; furthermore, the critical precipitation and the threshold of the rainfall intensity for the regional landslide are determined ,and then the macro-scopical forecasting and warning model for the regional hazard from landslide is developed at the same time.