大清河流域水循环影响因素演变特征分析

以海河流域的重要支流大清河流域为研究区,从气象因素和土地利用的角度对该流域水循环影响因素的演变特征进行分析。采用滑动平均法、Mann-Kendall非参数检验和小波分析法,分别对气象要素的趋势性、突变性和周期性进行了分析;同时,基于大清河流域四期的土地利用数据,分析了不同土地利用类型的演变规律。结果表明:(1)1970—2011年,大清河流域年降水量呈不显著的"减—增—减—增"的变化趋势,年均气温则变现为显著增加的态势;年潜在蒸散量在近54年来变化也较显著,呈"减—增"的变化;(2)流域年降水量几乎未发生突变,年均气温和年潜在蒸散量分别在1991年和1973年发生突变;(3)年降水量、年均气温以及年潜在蒸散量的演变周期分别以22年、28年和28年为主;(4)大清河流域土地利用类型以耕地、草地和林地为主,而土地利用类型的转化则处于耕地与城乡、工矿、居民用地,林地与草地之间。通过对大清河流域水循环影响因素演变规律的分析,可为进一步在该流域开展基于水循环理论的科学研究提供依据和支撑。

Analysis on evolution characteristics of water cycle impacting factors of Daqing River Watershed

By taking the watershed of Daqinghe River：an important tributary within Haihe River Basin as the study area，the evolution characteristics of the water cycle impacting factors in the watershed are analyzed from the aspects of meteorological factor and land use. For which，the trends，mutability and periodicity of the meteorological factors therein are analyzed respectively with the Sliding Average Method，Mann-Kendall method and Wavelet Analysis，while the evolution law of various land use types are also analyzed in accordance with the data from 4 periods of land use within Daqing River Watershed. The result shows that： （1）during 1970—2011，the annual precipitation of Daqinghe River Watershed presented an insignificant trend of decrease—increase—decrease—increase，while the annual temperature was changed with a tendency of significant increase; moreover，the change of the annual potential evapo transpiration （PET） is more significant within recent 54 years with a tendency of decrease—increase; （2）there is almost no any mutations for the precipitation within the watershed，while the mutations of both the annual average temperature and the annual potential evapo transpiration （PET） occurred in 1991 and 1973 respectively; （3）the evolution periods of the annual average precipitation，annual average temperature and annual potential evapo transpiration （PET） are mainly 22 years，28 years and 28 years respectively. Moreover，the land use types of Daqinghe River Watershed are mainly farmland，grassland and forestland，and that the transformation of land use type is among the farmland，urban development land，industrialland，mining land and residential land as well as between forestland and grassland. Through the analysis made on the evolution law of the water cycle impacting factors of Daqinghe River Watershed，relevant basis and support can be provided for the further water cycle theory based scientific study to be on the watershed.