干旱区水量平衡模型参数率定策略研究

以干旱区水量平衡模型为研究对象,建立了模型参数分区率定策略,采用改进的动尺度搜索算法(MDDS)对模型中河段水量损失系数、灌区退水系数等参数进行率定。使用条件概率和贝叶斯统计理论论证了分区率定策略的理论可行性,并通过干旱区(新疆开都河)水量平衡模型对模型参数全区和分区率定策略的性能优劣进行实例验证。利用焉耆站2000年1月—2015年12月的实测月平均流量过程和宝浪苏木闸2000年1月—2009年12月的实测月平均流量过程分别对水量平衡模型的焉耆站模拟结果与宝浪苏木站模拟结果进行参数率定,并对率定结果进行了分析。应用于新疆开都河流域焉耆站、宝浪苏木站的模拟结果表明,分区率定在每个分区的待率定参数个数、计算时间和率定效果方面较全区率定有较大优势。

Study on parameter calibration strategy for model of water balance in arid area

By taking a water balance model for arid area as the study object，the strategy of parameter calibration in sub-regions for the model is established，and then the parameters of water loss coefficient of the mid-river reach，the recession coefficient of irrigation area，etc. are calibrated with the modified dynamically dimensioned search algorithm （MDDS）. The theoretical feasibility of the strategy of parameter calibration in sub-regions is demonstrated with the conditional probability and the theory of Bayesian statistics，while the case verification on the performances of the strategies for both the whole region and the sub-region model parameter calibrations is carried out through the water balance model made for arid area （Kaiduhe River in Xinjiang）. In accordance with the measured monthly average flow hydrographs from Jan. 2000 to Dec. 2015 got from Yanqi Hydrological Station，the parameter calibrations of the simulated results from the water balance models for both Yanqi Hydrological Station and Baolangsunu Hydrological Station are made，of which the results are analyzed as well. The simulated results applied to Yanqi Hydrological Station and Baolangsunu Hydrological Station of Kaidu River Watershed show that the calibration in sub-regions has a larger advantage than the calibration of whole region in the aspects of the number of the parameters to be calibrated，calculating time and calibrating effect for all the sub-regions.