"黄河流域水资源演变规律与二元演化模型"研究成果简介

简要介绍了在国家重点基础研究发展规划“973”项目“黄河流域水资源演变规律与可再生性维持机理”第二课题(G1999043602)中取得的三项主要成果:(1)流域水资源二元演化模型;(2)黄河流域水资源全口径层次化动态评价;(3)人类活动影响下的黄河流域水资源演化规律。首先,将分布式流域水文模型(WEP-L)和集总式水资源调配模型(WARM)相耦合,建立了流域水资源二元演化模型。然后,在界定“广义水资源”与“狭义水资源”概念的基础上,提出了水资源全口径层次化动态评价方法,并给出了黄河流域评价成果。最后,通过比较2000年现状下垫面条件下与历史系列条件下的评价结果,以及考虑与不考虑人工取用水条件下的模拟结果,初步发现:(1)黄河流域在强烈的人类活动影响下,水资源量及其构成均发生了显著变化,地表水资源量衰减,而不重复地下水量增加;(2)在狭义水资源量衰减的同时,伴随着有效蒸散即降水有效利用的增加,流域广义水资源量有一定幅度增加。研究成果对客观评价水土保持生态建设、农田基本建设等土地利用变化的水文水资源效应,对黄河的治理规划和水安全战略具有重要参考应用价值。

An introduction to the research on "Evolutionary Laws and Dualistic Evolutionary Model of Water Resources in the Yellow River Basin"

The paper describes three main results obtained in the second project of the Yellow River "973" Program,i.e.,National Development Program for Basic Key Science Research entitled "Evolutionary Laws and Sustainable Maintaining Mechanism of Water Resources in the Yellow River Basin".The three main results are:(1) establishment of a dualistic evolutionary model of water resources;(2) multi-criterion and dynamic assessment of water resources in the Yellow River Basin;(3) evolutionary laws of water resources in the Yellow River Basin under the impact of human activities.The dualistic evolutionary model of water resources is established by coupling a distributed hydrological model for large basins(WEP-L) and a water allocation and regulation model(WARM).Concepts of special water resources and general water resources are proposed,and an approach for multi-criterion and dynamic assessment of water resources is suggested.The water resources assessment results under present underlying surfaces are compared with those under the historical underlying(land covers),and the water resources assessment results under no water use condition are compared with those under water use condition as well.By contrast,it is shown that the quantity and compositions of water resources changed distinctly under the impact of intensive human activities.The two main variations are as follows:(1) the surface water resources reduced but the groundwater resources which are non-overlapped with the surface water resources increased;(2) the special water resources reduced but the general water resources increased accompanied with increase of the effective evaporation,namely effective utilization of precipitation.