基于Mann-Kendall的嘉陵江流域降水量时空分布规律研究

了解流域尺度降水的变化,对于研究气候变化对水资源和水文过程的影响具有重要意义。本文对嘉陵江流域9个气象站点的1961—2018年58年间的实测降雨资料,进行Mann-Kendall非参数检验,并结合GIS空间分析技术,探讨了嘉陵江流域降水强弱时间周期及降水分布特征。结果表明:流域多年平均降水量为954.1mm, 1984年发生明显突变之后开始明显减少;流域降水呈梯度变化,由东南至西北方向逐步下降。研究表明,流域降水区域性明显,东南部整体偏涝;从时间上看1984年后整体偏旱。

Study on temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation in Jialing River Basin based on Mann-Kendall

Understanding the changes of precipitation at watershed scale is of great significance for studying the impacts of climate change on water resources and hydrological processes.In this paper,Mann-Kendall nonparametric test is carried out on the measured rainfall data of 9 meteorological stations in Jialing River basin from 1961 to 2018.Combined with GIS spatial analysis technology,the time period and distribution characteristics of precipitation intensity in Jialing River basin are discussed.The results show that the average precipitation in the basin for many years is 954.1mm,which began to decrease obviously after an obvious abrupt change in 1984.Precipitation in the basin changes gradually from southeast to northwest.The research shows that the precipitation in the basin is obvious regionally,and the southeast is generally waterlogged;from the time point of view,the overall drought after 1984.