Predicting Long‐Term Changes in Riparian Bird Communities in Floodplain Landscapes

As anthropogenic impacts on riverine ecosystems expand, both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems are influenced over large spatiotemporal scales. We predicted how riparian bird communities changed in response to long‐term changes in floodplain landscapes such as woodland expansion (i.e. rapid increases in vegetation cover on gravel bars and the progress of vegetation succession due to a decrease in the frequency and magnitude of flood disturbance). To test the hypothesis that woodland expansion after dam construction reduces the abundance of gravel bar‐nesting birds and increases the abundance of forest‐nesting birds, we estimated historical changes between past and present bird abundances using species distribution models across multiple rivers that were either unregulated or regulated by dams. We created past and present vegetation maps from remote sensing images and used habitat quantities as explanatory variables in the species distribution models. As we hypothesized, the estimated abundance of gravel bar‐nesting birds decreased and that of forest‐nesting birds increased because of woodland expansion in some regulated rivers. This suggests that anthropogenic alterations of riverine conditions (e.g. dam construction) can affect terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. riparian bird communities) through changes in floodplains (e.g. woodland expansion). In addition, our findings highlight the efficacy of combining spatial and temporal analyses when examining long‐term ecological dynamics. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.