System Dynamics Analysis for Managing Iran’s Zayandeh-Rud River Basin |
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Authors: | Kaveh Madani Miguel A Mariño |
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Affiliation: | (1) Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA |
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Abstract: | Within river basins different social, economic, political and physical subsystems interact. When making decisions, policy
makers should be aware of such interactions as any new policy will affect more than one subsystem. To determine the adequacy
of a specific management policy, an integrated study is needed of a complicated water management system in the basin considering
major physical, social, economic and political aspects. The Zayandeh-Rud river basin, in central Iran with a semi-arid climate
and large agricultural, industrial and domestic water uses, is an example of a complicated watershed system where the lack
of complete knowledge about all the interacting subsystems has led to failure of the policy makers in addressing the water
shortage in the basin. Although water shortages occur fairly soon after completion of each new water source, transbasin water
diversion is still the major policy of water planners to address ongoing shortages. System dynamics provides a unique framework
for integrating the disparate physical, socio-economic and political systems important to watershed management. This approach
is used to comprehend the interactions of different drivers of the problem and to convey the experiences, lessons learned,
and perceptions gained during the model development process. A simulation model, built based on causal loop diagrams of the
problem, shows that transbasin diversion is not the best and only solution to the problem. The results of the model for different
scenarios suggest that various options of demand management and population control can be more effective in addressing the
water crisis of the basin when combined with transbasin water diversions, increasing water storage capacity and controlling
of groundwater withdrawal. |
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Keywords: | Iran Zayandeh-Rud Zayandeh-Rood Zayandeh-Roud Gav-Khuni Gav-Khooni Gav-Khouni System dynamics Causal loop diagram Stock and flow diagram Watershed River basin Transbasin Transfer Diversion |
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