Quantifying the Urban Water Supply Impacts of Climate Change |
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Authors: | Jeffrey K O’Hara Konstantine P Georgakakos |
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Affiliation: | (1) Hydrologic Research Center, 12780 High Bluff Drive, Suite 250, San Diego, CA 92130, USA;(2) Scripps Inst. of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA |
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Abstract: | The difference in timing between water supply and urban water demand necessitates water storage. Existing reservoirs were
designed based upon hydrologic data from a given historical period, and, given recent evidence for climatic change, may be
insufficient to meet demand under future climate change scenarios. The focus of this study is to present a generally applicable
methodology to assess the ability of existing storage to meet urban water demand under present and projected future climatic
scenarios, and to determine the effectiveness of storage capacity expansions. Uncertainties in climatic forcing and projected
demand scenarios are considered explicitly by the models. The reservoir system in San Diego, California is used as a case
study. We find that the climate change scenarios will be more costly to the city than scenarios using historical hydrologic
parameters. The magnitude of the expected costs and the optimal investment policy are sensitive to projected population growth
and the accuracy to which our model can predict spills. |
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Keywords: | Climate change adaptation Reservoir storage expansion Urban water reliability Land surface hydrology Water planning |
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