Modelling the Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources in Central Sweden

This article describes investigationsinto the effects of climate change on flow regimes oftwenty-five catchments (from 6 to 1293 km²) incentral Sweden. Hydrological responses of fifteenhypothetical climate change scenarios (e.g.combinations of T = +1, +2 and +4 °C andP = 0, ± 10%, ± 20%) were simulated by a conceptual monthly water balance model. The results suggest thatall the hypothetical climate change scenarios wouldcause major decreases in winter snow accumulation.Significant increase of winter flow and decrease ofspring and summer runoff were resulted from mostscenarios. Attendant changes in actualevapotranspiration were also examined for all climatechange scenarios. Despite the changes in seasonaldistribution of evapotranspiration, the change inannual total evapotranspiration was relatively smallwith the maximum change of 23% compared with the 76%for mean annual snow water equivalent changes and 52%for mean annual runoff changes. Such hydrologicresults would have significant implications on futurewater resources design and management.