化工园区Na-Tech风险定量评价方法

自然灾害引发的技术灾害（Na-Tech）对工业设施及生产设备带来了风险，加上化工园区聚集着大量危险化学品，这种耦合风险的扩大效应极易造成园区及周围区域的巨大经济损失和人员伤亡，因此化工园区Na-Tech事故逐渐受到广泛关注。本文通过对化工园区多灾种耦合风险影响因素进行辨识，分析耦合风险系统结构及作用机理，建立耦合风险系统结构模型与耦合风险演化模型，提出地震灾害引发的Na-Tech事故中设备泄漏概率模型；以某化工园区为例，应用耦合风险模型及设备泄漏概率模型，利用QRA软件对多灾种耦合下化工园区风险进行定量评价，对比传统工业灾害和地震灾害下个人风险和社会风险，得出地震灾害对化工园区风险影响，为化工园区多灾种耦合风险研究提供理论与方法支撑。

Quantitative assessment of Na-Tech risk in chemical industry park

Natural hazard triggering technological disasters (Na-Tech) events pose risks to industrial facilities and process plants. As these plants handle hazardous materials, they can endanger nearby residential areas and have financial consequences. Therefore, the Na-Tech accident in the chemical industry park has gradually received widespread attention. In this paper, through identifying the factors affecting the coupling risk of multi-hazard species in the chemical industry park, analyzed the structure and mechanism of the coupling risk system, and established the coupling risk system structure model and the coupling risk evolution model. The equipment leakage probability model in the Na-Tech accident triggered by the earthquake disaster was put forward; With the application example of a chemical industry park by using the coupling risk model and the equipment leakage probability model, QRA software was used to quantitatively evaluate the risks of the chemical industry park under the coupling of multiple disasters, and the personal and social risks under the traditional industrial disasters and earthquake disasters were compared. The impact of earthquake disaster on the risk of chemical industry park is obtained, which provides theoretical and methodological support for the study of multi-hazard coupling risk in chemical industry park.