对油田量化优化投资管理的探讨

总结了国外石油公司投资管理的典型经验做法,从理论方法、思路及步骤和油田具体应用实例3个方面,对某油田原油产量量化预测、下属采油厂投资优化调整进行系统论述。其中,综合运用数据包络法和灰色马尔科夫模型等,预测确定油田合理投资规模;运用DEA等方法,优化调整不同采油厂之间(或采油厂内部油藏概念上的油田及区块等决策单元)投资方向和幅度。最后,通过借鉴国外石油公司的经验做法,结合现代投资量化优化理论及方法的具体应用体会,提出了优化油田投资管理的建议。

Discussion on Quantitative Optimization of Investment Management in Oilfield

This paper summarizes the typical experience and practice of investment management of foreign oil companies,and systematically discusses the quantitative prediction of crude oil production in an oilfield and the investment optimization and adjustment of subordinate oil production plants from three aspects of theoretical methods,ideas and steps,and specific application examples in the oilfield.Among them,data envelopment method and grey Markov model are comprehensively used to predict and determine the reasonable investment scale of the oilfield;DEA and other methods are used to optimize and adjust the investment direction and amplitude between different oil production plants(or the decision-making units such as the oilfield and block in the concept of oil reservoir within the oil production plant).Finally,by learning from the experience of foreign oil companies,combined with the specific application experience of modern investment quantitative optimization theory and method,some suggestions on optimizing oilfield investment management are put forward.