京杭运河徐州段水污染趋势预测

京杭运河徐州段是南水北调东线工程的一部分 ,1 0 a来的监测资料表明 ,蔺家坝、洞山西、红旗新村和解台闸等监测断面的水质为重污染或严重污染 ,达不到国家地面水 III类水体标准 ,其主要污染指标依次为石油类、非离子氨、化学需氧量、生化需氧量和高锰酸盐指数 .利用多年的监测资料建立了水质灰色预测模型 ,预测结果表明 ,2 0 0 5年运河徐州段解台闸断面的 COD,BOD5,石油类、高锰酸盐指数、非离子氨分别为 38.79,1 0 .5 7,0 .62 ,1 5 .64,0 .2 3mg/ L,接近或超过V类水标准 ,属重污染水平 ,因此应尽快控制丁万河、铜焦化、荆马河等支流的污水排放 ,以确保南水北调工程徐州段的水质 .

Prediction of Water Pollution in Xuzhou Section of the Great Canal

As a part of south to north water transfer project (east route), Xuzhou part of the Great Canal (from Hangzhou to Beijing) is very important to water supply for industry, agriculture and inhabitant. In the past 10 years this river was polluted seriously by industry, farming and city waste. The major pollutant are COD,BOD 5, petroleum,NH 3 N, heavy metals et, al. By using the GM(1,1) Model, the pollution trend was estimated. The result indicate that,In Xietaizha monitoring section, the content of COD,BOD 5, petroleum pollutant ,NH 3 N, K 2MnO 4 index in 2005 is 38.79, 10.57, 0.62, 0.23, and 15.64 mg/L, respectively. In 5 years the pollution will be much more serious, which will affect the south to north water transfer project if no measures for waste water control is taken.