桩基工程投标决策方法研究

以定量分析为基础，从风险和收益两方面入手，根据风险与收益均衡原则进行了决策过程的计算、分析，并建立了投标方案的决策准则，在总结投标实践经验的基础上，构建了报价方案程序，初步研究了中标概率的确定方法，并结合工程实例验证了所提方法的正确性，同时，将决策树法应用于决策判断，使决策更为准确、快速。为桩基施工企业选择出风险小、收益大的投标决策方案提供了科学依据。

Research on Decision-Making Method of Bidding for a Pile Foundation Project

Based on the factors of quantitative analysis, risk and profit, the decision making process was calculated and analyzed, and the decision making principle for a bidding scheme was established according to the equilibrium principle of risk and profit. Based on the experience of bidding practice, the author established a bidding offer procedure and put out a method for determining the bid winning probability. The example shows that the method is correct and practical. Meanwhile, the method of decision making tree can be used to form a quick and accurate decision making judgment, providing a scientific basis for those pile foundation enterprises to select a scheme with minimized risk and maximized profit.