黄河流域城市群城镇化与生态环境耦合协调预测

城镇化对于生态环境的胁迫效应和生态环境对城镇化进程形成的约束作用具有积累性和长期性。针对基于历史数据分析中未考虑到的滞后性问题,以黄河流域呼包鄂榆、宁夏沿黄、兰西、关中平原、中原、山东半岛和晋中等7个城市群为基本研究单元,构建城镇化与生态环境评价指标体系和耦合协调度模型,对2000～2019年黄河流域城市群耦合协调度进行测度,并建立ARIMA-BP组合模型来预测2020～2025年未来发展趋势。结果表明:黄河流域城市群耦合协调度呈上升趋势,部分城市群出现波动,耦合协调特征由轻度失调、濒临失调转为勉强协调、初级协调; 对未来6年耦合协调度预测发现,7个城市群耦合协调度未来皆表现出上升趋势,但不同城市群存在一定差异,部分城市群在2025年依旧未能突破轻度协调达到更加理想的耦合协调阶段。未来应不断提升山东半岛城市群核心竞争力,推进关中平原城市群和中原城市群次级中小城市成长壮大,并且要格外关注呼包鄂榆城市群、晋中城市群依靠资源发展所导致的水土流失和污染防治问题,加强宁夏沿黄城市群和兰西城市群城镇化建设和生态环境保护力度,补齐流域发展短板,早日实现流域城市群协同发展。

Prediction of Coupling and Coordination Between Urbanization and Eco-environment of Urban Agglomerations in Yellow River Basin,China

The stress effects of urbanization on eco-environment and the restraint effects of eco-environment on urbanization are accumulated and long-termed. In response to the lag problems based on historical data, taking 7 urban agglomerations including Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos-Yulin, along Yellow River in Ningxia, Lanzhou-Xining, Guanzhong Plain, Zhongyuan, Shandong Peninsula and Jinzhong in Yellow River basin as the basic research units, the urbanization and eco-environment evaluation index system and coupling coordination model of urban agglomerations in Yellow River basin during 2000-2019 were constructed, and an ARIMA-BP combination model to predict future trends was established. The results show that coupling coordination degrees of urban agglomerations in Yellow River basin are rising, and some urban agglomerations show fluctuation values; the coupling coordination characterized by mild disorder and endangered turns into barely coordinated and primary coordinated; for the next 6 years forecast, the coupling coordination degrees of 7 urban agglomerations show an upward trend in the future, but there are certain differences, some urban agglomerations still fail to break through mild coordination to reach more ideal coupling phases in 2025. In the future, the core competitiveness of Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration should be continuously improved, Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration and Zhongyuan urban agglomeration should be promoted for the growth of secondary small and medium-sized cities, and special attention should be paid to the water and soil erosion caused by the development of Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos-Yulin urban agglomeration and Jinzhong urban agglomeration. Besides, urban agglomeration along Yellow River in Ningxia and Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration should strengthen the urbanization and ecological environment protection, and make up for the shortcomings in the development to realize the coordinated development of the urban agglomerations in the river basin as soon as possible.