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用耦合模型预测水文系列
引用本文:王心义.用耦合模型预测水文系列[J].焦作工学院学报,1993(2).
作者姓名:王心义
摘    要:本文分析了在预测水文系列时使用的互相关模型、自相关一维AR(P)及多维AR(P)模型的优缺点为克服这些模型之不足,文章提出了用既考虑变量互相关又考虑变量自相关及其随机性的耦合模型进行水文系列预测的方法。文章给出了耦合模型的一般形式,并用一实例说明了建立耦合模型的程序,希望对于生产有指导意义。

关 键 词:耦合随机模型  水文系列  互相关  自相关  AR(P)模型  多维AR(P)模型

USE INTEGRATED MODEL FOR FORECASTING HYDROLOGIC SERIES
Wang Xinyi.USE INTEGRATED MODEL FOR FORECASTING HYDROLOGIC SERIES[J].Journal of Jiaozuo Institute of Technology(Natural Science),1993(2).
Authors:Wang Xinyi
Abstract:This paper analysses the advantages and faults of cross-corrclation model, univariate and mnltivariate AR(P) model. For correcting the faults, the paper presents the new method, that using integrated model forecast hydrologic series. This integrated model considers entirely cross-correlation, autocorrelation between variables and the stochastic property of variable, and it is simple for calculating. Through transform, the paper gives the general equality of integrated model. The paper yet uses an exemple to explain the program of building integrated model.
Keywords:infegrated model  hydrologic series  cross-correlation  autocorreclation  AR(P) model  multivariate AR(P) model  
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