中国房地产业与国民经济发展耦合协调性研究

基于2000~2014年中国房地产业与国民经济发展相关数据,检验二者之间的协整关系,并运用熵值赋权法构建二者的耦合协调度模型,进行实证分析。研究发现:2000~2014年中国房地产业与国民经济发展之间并不存在协整关系,二者耦合协调度由低度协调向中度协调转变并稳步提高,没有达到理想的高度协调和极度协调阶段。其中2000~2004年为极度不协调,2005年和2006年为严重不协调,2007~2009年为轻度不协调,2010年和2011年属于勉强协调类,2012~2014年为调和协调类。

Study On Coupling Coordination Degree between Real Estate Industry and National Economy in China

Based on the related data of real estate industry and the national economic development in China from 2000 to 2014, we tested the co-integration relationship between the two factors, and constructed the coupling coordination degree model with the entropy weighting method for empirical analysis. Investigation results show that there is no co-integration relationship between the real estate industry and the national economic development during the period of 2000 to 2014.And the coupling coordination degree between the two factors increased steadily changing from low to medium extent. However, it does not reach the ideallyhigh and extreme coordinated stage. To be precise, the coupling coordination degree shows an extremely incongruity from 2000 to 2004. Also it was serious mismatch between 2005 and 2006 and slightly uncoordinated during 2007~2009. While during the period of 2010~2011, it changed into a barely coordinated type and it turned into harmonious coordinate type from 2012 to 2014.