| 0?1膨胀负二项回归模型在COVID?19疫情分析中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 马巧玲,肖翔.0?1膨胀负二项回归模型在COVID?19疫情分析中的应用[J].上海工程技术大学学报,2022,36(2):212-217. |
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| 作者姓名： | 马巧玲 肖翔 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海工程技术大学 数理与统计学院, 上海 201620 |
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| 基金项目： | 全国统计科学研究项目资助（2020LY080） |
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| 摘 要： | 在公共卫生等应用领域，经常会同时出现零观测值、一观测值较多的情况. 为更好地拟合这类数据，采用0?1膨胀负二项分布及其回归模型进行分析. 在数据扩充基础上，结合Pólya?Gamma潜变量对模型参数进行贝叶斯推断. 最后，对我国湖北省2019冠状病毒病(COVID?19)死亡数据集进行分析. 研究表明，0?1膨胀负二项回归模型能够达到更好的拟合效果.
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| 关 键 词： | 0?1膨胀负二项回归模型 2019冠状病毒病 Pólya?Gamma潜变量 贝叶斯推断 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-10-29 |
Application of zero-and-one-inflated negative binomial regression model in COVID?19 epidemic analysis |
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| MA Qiaoling,XIAO Xiang.Application of zero-and-one-inflated negative binomial regression model in COVID?19 epidemic analysis[J].Journal of Shanghai University of Engineering Science,2022,36(2):212-217. |
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| Authors: | MA Qiaoling XIAO Xiang |
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| Affiliation: | School of Mathematics, Physics and Statistics, Shanghai University of Engineering Science, Shanghai 201620, China |
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| Abstract: | Count datas with excess zeros and ones arise frequently in the field of public health. In order to fit the kind of data, a zero-and-one-inflated negative binomial (ZOINB) distribution and its regression model were adopted for analysis. Based on data augmentation strategy and Pólya?Gamma latent variables Bayesian inference was used to estimate the parameters of ZOINB regression model. Finally, one corona virus disease 2019 (COVID?19) death data-set from Hubei Province in China was analyzed. The result illustrates that ZOINB regression model can achieve better fitting effect. |
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