基于NASA观测数据的风电出力时空分布及波动特性分析

为克服实际风电场运行数据难以获取的问题,提出一种基于历史风速的风资源评估方法。首先,基于美国NASA(National aeronautics and space administration)数据中心获取风速数据,并利用假想风电机组模型转化为风机出力时间序列;然后,通过对时间序列的统计分析,计算期望、半载概率等指标评估风电出力的时空分布特性;最后,通过计算风电出力方差和分析相邻峰谷点差值概率分布规律分析风电出力的波动特性。所提方法能够同时考虑风资源自然特性和风电机组特性,且能对风电波动特性提供定量描述。利用所提方法对山东省风资源的评估结果表明:山东省可利用风能资源随地区、季节和昼夜的变化呈现出明显规律。

Analysis of spatial and temporal distribution of wind power output and variation characteristics based on NASA observation data

In order to overcome the difficulties of acquiring operation data of the practical wind farms, an estimation method of wind energy resources based on the history wind speed has been put forward. First, the wind speed data was acquired from the NASA data center and was converted to the the output sequence of an imaginary wind turbine, and then the indexes such as expectation and probability of half load were calculated by statically analyisis of the wind turbine output sequence to evaluate the spatial and temporal distribution of the wind energy. Finally, the variance of the wind power output as well as the statistical law of the wind power output differences between adjacent peak and valley points were calculated to analyze the variation characteristics of the wind energy. The proposed method could take the nature of wind energy resources as well as the characteristics of wind turbine into consideration and quantitatively describe the variance of the wind power ouput. The method was used to analyze the wind energy resources in Shandong Province and the results showed that the technological available wind energy varies with regions, seasons as well as day and night in an obvious law.