基于ArcGIS的枝江市城乡建设用地适宜性评价及其发展趋势预测

土地适宜性评价在推进国土资源优化配置、城乡空间的合理开发中起着基础性作用，是制定合理的土地利用决策的重要前提。以湖北省枝江市为研究对象，基于ArcGIS的数据处理和空间分析统计功能，构建城乡建设用地适宜性评价模型，研究枝江市城乡建设用地适宜性，并将适宜性评价结果划分为5个等级。在此基础上，分别构建研究区城乡建设用地空间格局匹配性研究模型、建设用地开发潜力研究模型和建设用地扩张趋势动态模拟元胞自动机模型，研究城乡建设用地适宜性评价结果与现状空间格局的匹配性、建设用地空间发展潜力和空间扩张趋势。本研究对枝江市城乡建设用地的合理布局和有序开发具有一定的指导意义，同时能够为类似市（县、区）的相关研究提供方法借鉴和参考。

Suitability Evaluation and Development Trend Prediction of Urban and Rural Construction Land in Zhijiang City Based on ArcGIS

Land suitability evaluation plays a fundamental role in promoting the optimal allocation of land resources and the rational development of urban and rural spaces. It is also an important prerequisite for making rational land use decision. Here，taking Zhijiang City of Hubei Province as the research area，an evaluation model of urban and rural construction land suitability was constructed to investigate the suitability of urban and rural construction land in Zhijiang City using ArcGIS data processing and spatial analysis statistical function. The suitability evaluation results were then divided into five levels. The models of spatial pattern matching research，development potential research and spatial expansion trend dynamic simulation cellular automata for urban and rural construction land were developed to study the matching between the suitability evaluation results and the current spatial pattern，the development potential and the spatial expansion trend of the construction land. This work provides a basis for rational layout and orderly development and utilization of urban and rural construction land in Zhijiang City，and establishes methods for the similar cities （counties and districts） as the reference.