城市公共交通系统发展策略的系统动力学建模与仿真

城市公交系统是由公交出行者、公交运营系统和公交管理者3个主体构成的多变量、非线性的复杂巨系统,不同发展策略对各主体的影响不同.根据城市公交系统在系统中的作用将公交系统划分为公交需求子系统、公交供给子系统和公交吸引能力子系统.采用系统动力学方法,建立城市公共交通系统变量间的因果关系图和流图,分析并确定城市公交系统常用的3种发展策略方案,以哈尔滨市公共交通系统的统计数据为基础,对不同发展策略下的城市公交系统发展情况进行仿真,得出客运量、拥挤程度和分担率的变化趋势,评价不同发展策略的实施效果.

Modeling and simulation for the development strategy of urban public transit system using system dynamics

The urban public transit system is a nonlinear complex giant system composed of public transit traveler, public transit operation system and public transit managers. Different development strategy has different affect on each df the main. According to the role of urban public transit in the system, the public transit system is divided into three parts, which is public transit demand subsystem, public transit supply subsystem and public transit attracting ability subsystem. The system dynamics is adopted to establish the Causal relationship diagram and flow diagram among the variables of urban public transit. Three development strategy programs are proposed and analyzed. Based on the statistics in Harbin, simulation is made on the different development strategies. The trends of passenger traffic, the crowded extent and contribution rate are obtained to evaluate the implementation effect.