首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
     

山区暴雨山洪水沙灾害预报预警关键技术研究构想与成果展望
引用本文:刘超,聂锐华,刘兴年,许唯临.山区暴雨山洪水沙灾害预报预警关键技术研究构想与成果展望[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),2020,52(6):1-8.
作者姓名:刘超  聂锐华  刘兴年  许唯临
作者单位:四川大学水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室,四川大学水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室,四川大学水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室,四川大学水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC1510700)
摘    要:山洪灾害为全球重大自然灾害之一,本世纪全球因山洪灾害造成的经济损失已高达每年460多亿美元。我国山洪灾害防治区面积约占陆地面积的40%,山洪灾害造成的人员死亡约占洪涝灾害死亡人数的70%。近年来,我国全面开展山洪灾害防治项目建设,目前已基本建成了专群结合的山洪灾害防治体系,山洪灾害监测预警技术水平明显提升。山区暴雨山洪灾害实例表明,重大人员伤亡与重大财产损失的山洪灾害事件往往源于洪水和泥沙的共同作用,然而,以往在进行山洪灾害防治时,大多仅关注“洪水”的作用,忽视了“洪水和泥沙”共同作用将显著增大山洪灾害的致灾风险乃至出现“小洪水大灾害”。为了进一步提高山洪灾害防控能力和完善山洪灾害防御体系,亟需深入研究暴雨山洪水沙灾害预报预警关键技术。“山区暴雨山洪水沙灾害预报预警关键技术研究与示范”项目,以洪水和泥沙共同作用为切入点,凝练了四个需攻克的关键科学技术问题:1)山区暴雨作用下流域产流产沙异变机制、水沙过程与沟床剧变耦合致灾机制;2)山区暴雨山洪水沙灾害早期识别与致灾要素一体化智能监测技术;3)山区暴雨山洪水沙运动过程模拟与快速预报技术;4)基于山洪水沙灾害动力过程的灾害风险动态评估与预警防控技术。围绕关键科学技术问题的内涵,提出五个需开展的重点研究内容:1)山区暴雨产流产沙过程与水沙耦合致灾机制研究;2)山区暴雨山洪水沙灾害早期识别与智能监测技术;3)山区暴雨山洪水沙运动过程模拟与快速预报技术;4)山区暴雨山洪水沙灾害风险动态评估与预警技术;5)山区暴雨山洪水沙灾害预报预警防控平台构建与示范。研究成果将揭示山区暴雨产流产沙过程与水沙耦合致灾机制,提出山区暴雨山洪水沙灾害早期识别方法、山区暴雨山洪水沙灾害智能监测技术体系、山洪水沙运动过程模拟与快速预报技术、山洪水沙灾害风险动态评估与预警技术等,构建集早期识别、风险评估及综合防控一体化的暴雨山洪水沙灾害预报预警防控平台,提升我国暴雨山洪灾害监测预警与防控的实时性、精准度和智能化水平。

关 键 词:山洪灾害  山洪水沙灾害  暴雨洪水  监测预警  泥沙补给  风险评估
收稿时间:2020/10/9 0:00:00
修稿时间:2020/10/27 0:00:00

Research Conception and Achievement Prospect of Key Technologies for Forecast and Early Warning of Flash Flood and Sediment Disasters in Mountainous Rainstorm
LIU Chao,NIE Ruihu,LIU Xingnian,XU Weilin.Research Conception and Achievement Prospect of Key Technologies for Forecast and Early Warning of Flash Flood and Sediment Disasters in Mountainous Rainstorm[J].Journal of Sichuan University (Engineering Science Edition),2020,52(6):1-8.
Authors:LIU Chao  NIE Ruihu  LIU Xingnian  XU Weilin
Affiliation:State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering,Sichuan University,State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering,Sichuan University,State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering,Sichuan University,State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering,Sichuan University
Abstract:The Mountain torrent disaster is one of the major natural disasters in the world. The global economic loss caused by flash floods in the 21st century has reached more than 46 billion US dollars per year. The area of mountain flood disaster prevention and control accounts for about 40% of the land in China, whereas the fatality caused by mountain flash floods account for about 70% of the death toll from flood disasters. In recent years, the construction of mountain torrent disaster prevention and control projects have been carried out in an all-round way in China. A mountain torrent disaster prevention and control system combining specialists and groups has been basically established, and the technical level of mountain torrent disaster monitoring and early warning has been significantly improved. Examples of torrential rain and flash flood disasters show that flash flood disasters with heavy casualties and property losses often result from the combined effects of floods and sediment. In the past, scientists mostly paid attention to the flood"s role while ignoring that the combined effect of flood and sediment would significantly increase the risk of mountain torrent disasters. To further improve the ability to prevent and control mountain flood disasters, it is urgent to study the critical technologies of flood and sediment disaster forecasting and early warning. The project "Research and Demonstration of Key Technologies for Forecasting and Early Warning of Flash Floods and Sediment Disasters in Mountainous Rainstorms" focuses on the joint action of flood and sediment and condenses four critical scientific and technological issues: 1) mutation mechanism of runoff and sediment yield and disaster-causing coupling mechanism of the flood-sediment process and gully-bed drastic change in mountainous area under heavy rain; 2)early identification of flood and sediment disasters and integrated intelligent monitoring technology for disaster-causing elements in mountainous rainstorms; 3) simulation and rapid prediction technology of flash flood and sediment movement process in a mountainous rainstorm; and 4) disaster risk dynamic assessment and early warning and prevention technology based on the dynamic process of mountain flood and sediment disaster. Focusing on the connotation of critical scientific and technological issues, we proposed five key research contents including 1) study on the process of runoff and sediment production in mountainous areas and the disaster mechanism of flood and sediment coupling; 2) early identification and intelligent monitoring technology for flood and sediment disasters in mountainous areas; 3) simulation and rapid prediction technology of flood and sediment movement process in a mountainous rainstorm; 4) dynamic assessment and early warning technology of flood and sediment disaster risk in mountainous areas; and 5) construction and demonstration of a platform for forecasting, early warning, and prevention of flood and sediment disasters in mountainous areas. The research results will improve the real-time accuracy and intellectual level of monitoring, early warning, and prevention and control of heavy rain and flash flood disasters in China.
Keywords:mountain torrent disaster  flash flood and sediment disaster  flash flood  monitoring and early warning  sediment supply  risk assessment
点击此处可从《四川大学学报(工程科学版)》浏览原始摘要信息
点击此处可从《四川大学学报(工程科学版)》下载全文
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号