崩滑型堰塞坝危险性快速评估研究进展（特约稿）

崩滑型堰塞坝是由地震、降雨、火山喷发等自然因素诱发的崩塌、滑坡堵塞河道所形成的天然土石坝，其在世界范围内广泛分布。崩滑型堰塞坝的形成与溃决具有高突发性、突溃性和强致灾性，会严重威胁所在流域的人民生命财产安全。因此，快速开展堰塞坝危险性评估，对应急抢险救灾具有重要的现实意义。目前对堰塞坝危险性快速评估的研究主要集中在成坝可能性、稳定性、寿命和溃决洪水等四个方面。本文总结了堰塞坝成坝影响因素和成坝快速判别公式，系统阐述了堰塞坝稳定性和寿命的定义、影响因素及快速评估模型，详细归纳分析了堰塞坝溃决模式、溃坝影响因素及坝址与下游河道的洪水快速预测模型。研究表明堰塞坝的形成主要受地形条件，固体物源条件和水源条件的影响；其稳定性、寿命和溃决主要受坝体几何形态，坝体材料、结构和水文特征等方面的影响。根据影响因素所建立的评估模型在一定程度上可以快速估算堰塞坝的稳定性、寿命、溃决流量等参数，但由于信息获取不便等问题，评估结果仍然存在一定的不确定性。在此基础上，本文提出了需要进一步研究的方向：(1) 考虑不同外因（地震、降雨等）条件下滑坡、崩塌启动及运移过程大型模型试验，建立考虑关键影响因素和水土物质相互作用的成坝快速判别模型；(2) 基于物探等手段开展堰塞坝坝体材料和结构参数的快速获取研究；(3) 建立考虑能量转换与耗散的溃坝程度快速评估模型，分析残余坝体致灾危险性；(4) 构建流域堰塞坝溃决洪水演进及水库调蓄减灾分析模型，指导流域水量调度及流域范围内工程建设；(5)开展堰塞坝灾害链对全流域影响的快速动态风险评估，为堰塞坝灾害预测及应急处置提供重要参考依据。

Research Progress on Rapid Hazard Assessment of Landslide Dams Caused by Landslides and Avalanches (Invited Contribution)

Landslide dams usually formed by river blockages with massive amounts of materials from avalanches, landslides caused by earthquake, rainfall, and volcanic eruption. The formation and breaching of landslide dams caused by landslides or avalanche normally have characteristics of sudden occurrence, sudden breach and high risks, posing great threats to people and infrastructure upstream and downstream. The study of rapid hazard assessment of landslide dams is of great significance for emergency risks management. At present, rapid hazard assessment of landslide dams mainly focuses on four aspects, such as the possibility of dam formation, stability, longevity, and breaching flood. This paper first reviewed the influencing factors and efficient discriminant formula study of landslide dam formation. Then, the definition, affecting factors and rapid evaluation model of the stability and longevity of landslide dams were specifically summarized. Finally, the failure modes, affecting factors and quick prediction models of dam breaching flood were analyzed in detail. The present research shows that the formation of landslide dams is mainly affected by the topographic conditions, solid material sources and water sources, and the stability, longevity and breaching parameters are mainly influenced by the geometrical characteristics, materials, structures, and hydrological characteristics of landslide dams. The evaluation models based on the influencing factors can estimate the formation, stability, longevity and breaching parameters quickly, but the accuracy of results still needs to be improved. On this basis, five directions are proposed for further research: (1) large-scale model tests on the occurrence and migration process of landslides or avalanches under different factors (e.g., earthquake, rainfall) should be carried out, so as to establish the rapid assessment model of dam formation; (2) new methods to obtain the dam materials and internal structural quickly should be studied; (3) prediction research on breaching degree of landslide dam should be carried out to analyze the risk of residual landslide dam; (4) quick assessment model of dam breaching flood should be established from the perspective of watershed to guide water dispatching and engineering construction; (5) dynamic risk assessment of the impact of disaster chain on the whole river basin should be carried out to provide important reference for disaster prediction and emergency treatment.