集对分析方法在区域泥石流危险性评价中的应用研究

泥石流危险性评价是泥石流灾害预报和减灾工作中的重要内容和决策基础。它是对潜灾害进行预评估的重要手段,其涉及到了致灾体的自然属性,是一个重要而复杂的科学问题。传统的泥石流危险性评价方法由于需要根据经验确定各个影响因子的权重,这在实际应用很不方便。为了解决传统方法中因子权重难以确定的问题,作者提出了基于集对分析的区域泥石流危险性评价新方法。该方法不仅可以消除应用时需要人为确定各因子权重的弊端,而且其联系度能够刻画区域泥石流危险性评价变量之间微观上的相关结构。最后将模型应用到北川县7乡镇,研究表明应用集对分析法可行的。

A New Approach to Regional Debris Flow Risk Assessment Based on Set Pair Analysis

Regional debris flow risk assessment is an important part of debris flow prediction and mitigation,and the traditional assessment methods,which contain empirical weight value for the influence factors,are difficult for calculation and application in regional debris flow risk assessment.In order to treat this problem,the set pair analysis(SPA) was introduced into the relation analysis of regional debris flow risk assessment variables because it didn’t need the empirical weight value and the connection degree of SPA could display the detail related structure of debris flow risk assessment variables.Then,the basic ideals and steps of SPA were discussed.Finally,this method was applied to Beichuan County.The results showed high accuracy and reasonable risk estimates.