基于CF法的震后泥石流频发区灾害主控因子研究（研究生论坛）

汶川地震极震区地震引发的大量崩塌、滑坡导致泥石流的孕灾环境发生剧烈变化，震后泥石流灾害十分频发，泥石流的防灾减灾迫在眉睫。本论文以汶川地震极震区都江堰深溪沟流域为研究区，在震后孕灾环境分析的基础上，得出该地区泥石流频发的主控因子为丰富的物源条件和易于灾害发生的地形地貌条件，并采用确定性系数CF法，定量分析了复杂地形地貌条件对泥石流灾害的影响程度，确定了该流域最有利于泥石流灾害发生的高程、坡度和坡向范围；并将研究结果和震后丰富的物源条件进行叠加分析，确定了主控因子共同作用下深溪沟流域泥石流灾害最危险的分布区域。研究结果可以为震后深溪沟流域泥石流灾害频发的成因分析提供依据，对震区的泥石流危险性评价和区划、防灾减灾、灾后恢复重建以及经济建设布局等具有重要的意义。

Study on Hazard Main-control Factors in Debris Flow-prone Areas after Wenchuan Earthquake Based on CF Method

In the Wenchuan Earthquake meizoseismal areas, numerous collapses and landslides triggered by the earthquake cause the debris flow hazard inducing environment drastically change, debris flow hazard occurs frequently and its prevention and mitigation is imminent. Taking Du Jiangyan Shenxi gully as the study area, based on analyzing post-earthquake debris flow hazard inducing environment, the hazard main-control factors including rich material source and susceptible geomorphology condition were determined, and the impact of the geomorphology condition including elevation, slop and aspect on debris flow were analyzed quantitatively using certainty coefficient method. Overlaid the study results with material source rich areas, the distribution of the most dangerous areas in Shenxi gully basin were delimited under the action of hazard main-control factors. The study results can provide a reference for analyzing the cause of frequent occurrence of debris flow hazards after the earthquake, and have important guiding significance for hazard assessment and zoning, disaster prevention and mitigation as well as economic construction and layout after the earthquake.