基于二元极限理论的流域洪水资源利用现状与潜力分析

为协调流域洪水资源利用与洪水资源调控利用能力和下游生态需水量两个约束之间的关系,在现有研究的基础上,进一步提出基于二元极限理论的流域洪水资源利用现状与潜力分析方法：认为洪水资源可利用量是洪水资源调控利用能力和下游生态需水量的函数；认为洪水资源利用潜力也是洪水资源调控利用能力和下游生态需水量的函数。对其概念和方法进行阐述,并通过二元极限理论分析两个因变量和两个自变量之间的关系。以淮河流域吴家渡水文站以上区域为例,根据所提出方法,计算区域相关指标： 1956-2016年区域平均洪水资源利用率为24.7%,利用率波动幅度较大,但是随着时间的发展,整体趋势在不断提高。多年平均现状可利用量为72.4亿m3，平均理论可利用量为183.53亿m3，平均现状利用潜力为34.76亿m3，平均理论利用潜力为145.89亿m3。洪水资源利用主要集中在偏丰水年和平水年。洪水资源调控利用能力每增加20亿m3,洪水资源可利用量平均增加15亿m3,利用潜力平均增加16亿m3；下游生态需水量每增加20亿m3,洪水资源可利用量平均减少5亿m3,利用潜力平均减少3亿m3。说明洪水资源可利用量和利用潜力主要受洪水资源调控利用能力限制,提高调控利用能力是提高该区域洪水资源利用水平的关键。

Analysis of Current and Potential Flood Resources Utilization in Basin Based on Bivariate Limit Theory

In order to coordinate the relationship among utilization of flood resources, flood control capacity and downstream ecological water demand, this paper proposes a bivariate limit theory to evaluate the current and potential of flood resource utilization based on the existed research: Utilizable flood resources quantity is considered as a function of flood control capacity and downstream ecological water demand, Flood resources utilization potentiality is also considered as a function of flood control capacity and downstream ecological water demand. The conceptions and methods are illustrated. Based on the proposed methods, the related index of the area above Wujiadu hydrological station in Huaihe basin are calculated. The results show that during 1956-2016 the average utilization rate of flood resources was 24.7%, although utilization rate fluctuates greatly, the overall trend is constantly improving. The current and theoretical availability were 7.24 billion m³ and 18.353 billion m³ respectively. The current and theoretical utilization potential were 3.476 billion m³ and 14.589 billion m³ respectively. The utilization of flood resources is mainly concentrated in the year of a little wet water and wet year. For every increase of 2 billion m³ of flood control capacity, the utilizable flood resources quantity can increase 1.5 billion m³ and the flood resources utilization potentiality can increase 1.6 billion m³. For every increase of 2 billion m³ of downstream ecological water demand, the utilizable flood resources quantity can reduce 0.5 billion m³ and the flood resources utilization potentiality can reduce 0.3 billion m³. It shows that utilizable flood resources quantity and flood resources utilization potentiality are mainly controlled by flood control capacity. Improving flood control capacity is the key to improve the utilization level of flood resources in this region.