堰塞湖风险评估快速检测与应急抢险技术和装备研发研究构想与成果展望

我国堰塞湖灾害发生频率高、分布范围广、受灾群众多、经济损失大,提升堰塞湖灾害防灾减灾救灾能力是国家重大需求。目前,我国堰塞湖风险快速评估与应急抢险技术和装备研究尚处于起步和探索阶段：在理论方面对堰塞坝成生机制及溃决机理尚认识不清；在技术方面目前已有的堰塞湖风险快速评估方法及应急处置装备尚不能满足堰塞湖高效应急抢险的需求。针对堰塞湖风险快速评估与应急处置这一国家重大需求,拟运用现代地质学、水沙动力学与信息学等多学科综合交叉与融合的手段,旨在解决“基于岸坡地质和运动过程分析的堰塞体形成机理、不同结构及变化环境下的堰塞体溃决机理”两大科学问题,突破“堰塞湖多源信息快速感知与动态识别和结构探测技术、基于携砂水流的堰塞体溃决过程模拟技术、考虑结构形态要素的堰塞湖致灾风险评估技术、堰塞湖高效排水疏通及堰塞体流道控制技术”四大关键技术,形成完善的堰塞湖风险评估体系及应急抢险成套技术和装备。通过开展堰塞体形成与溃决机理及溃决过程、多源信息快速感知与探测、险情应急监控与预警、致灾风险评估、高风险堰塞湖应急处置技术及应急抢险关键装备研发等六个方面的系统研究工作,破解堰塞湖成生及溃决难题,构建堰塞湖风险评估理论体系,最终形成成套堰塞湖应急处置技术和装备并进行示范应用,以期通过协作攻关研究进而提升我国堰塞湖应急处置与抢险水平并为保障人民生命财产安全提供科技支撑。

Research Framework and Anticipated Results of the Rapid Detection of Risk Assessment, Research and Development of Emergency Disposal Technology and Equipment of Dammed Lakes

The dammed lake disasters in China are characteristiced by high frequency, wide distribution, large number of affected people and usually cause a large economic loss. Hence, promoting the ability of dammed lake disaster prevention, reduction and relief is a major national need. At present, the rapid risk assessment and emergency rescue technology and equipment research of dammed lake in China still remain in the initial and exploration stage. Theoretically, the formation mechanism and outburst mechanism of dammed lakes are not clearly revealed. Technically, the rapid risk assessment method and emergency rescue equipment cannot provide strong scientific and technological support for the emergency rescue of dammed lakes. Modern geology, hydro-sediment dynamics and informatics are integrated and integrated in this program to study the risk assessment and emergency rescue of dammed lakes. This program aims to solve the following two scientific problems: (1) the formation mechanism of dammed lake based on the slope geology condition and sliding process analysis, and (2) the outburst mechanism of dammed lake under different structure and environment condition. The following four key technologies are expected to be solved and a risk assessment system and emergency rescue technology system to be established: (1) rapid sensing of multi-source information of dammed lake, dynamic identification and structural detection technology, (2) simulation technology on outburst process of dammed lake based on sand-carrying flow, (3) risk assessment technology of dammed lake disaster considering structural morphological elements, (4) efficient drainage and dredging technology of dammed lake and flow channel control technology. This program aims to reveal the formation and outburst mechanism, build the risk assessment theory system of dammed lake, and finally develop the emergency treatment technology and equipment of dammed lake via conducting the following studies: (1) formation process of dammed lake and the mechanism and process of dam outburst, (2) fast sensing and detection of multi-source information, (3) emergency monitoring and early warning, (4) risk assessment of dammed lake, (5) emergency disposal technology for dammed lakes with high risk and (6) research and development of key emergency equipment. It is hoped that this program can significantly enhance the level of dammed lake emergency disposal and rescue in our country and provide technology support to ensure the security of people"s life and property.