基于简化Bishop积分法降雨滑坡失效概率模型研究

摘要：为了研究降雨对降雨型滑坡的影响，利用不同降雨重现期的前期有效降雨量，分析不同降雨入渗条件下的滑坡土体含水率的变化对土体抗剪强度参数和基质吸力的影响，基于简化Bishop积分法和响应面法的基本原理，用积分法代替有限条分求和，考虑土体强度参数的变异性及降雨自身随机性，提出了一种新的降雨滑坡失效概率模型，定量评价不同降雨条件下的滑坡失效概率并采用该方法对某一实际滑坡进行研究分析。计算结果表明，随着降雨重现期与降雨天数的增加，滑坡的失效概率越高，但考虑降雨自身的概率时，滑坡的失效概率并不是随着降雨重现期的增加而增加，且考虑基质吸力所得的稳定系数略高，失效概率稍低。

Study on the Failure Probability Model of Landslide with Rainfall Infiltration Based on Simplified Bishop Integral Method

Abstract: In order to study the relationship between landslides and rainfall, the antecedent effective precipitations of different return period were used to analyze the influence of soil moisture on the shear strength parameters of soil body and matrix suction. Then a new method was presented to quantitatively evaluate landslide failure probability under different rainfall return periods based on response surface and simplified Bishop integral method. In additional, the method was applied to in an example and the result showed that a higher failure probability of landslide was calculated with the increase of rainfall return period and rainy days. But considering the probability of rainfall itself, a growing rainfall return period did not mean increase in failure probability of landslide. A slightly stability factor and a lower failure probability of landslide can be calculated based on matrix suction.