长江上游主要河流年径流序列变化特性分析

为探讨长江上游年径流的变化特性,采用随机分析法、小波分析法和集对原理,研究长江上游主要河流年径流序列的趋势性、周期性、相依性、持续性和丰枯变化.结果表明,长江上游主要河流年径流序列多数存在趋势性,具有不同的周期成分且在时域上分布不均匀,年径流序列间具有自互相关特性且可能存在一定的长持续性相关结构,年径流在空间上具有丰枯同步变化特点.

Analysis of Annual Runoff Characteristics of Main Rivers in the Upper Reaches of Yangtze River

The relevant statistical properties including trends, periodicities, dependences, persistence and the consistent of low and high runoff of annual runoff for the main rivers in the upper reaches of Yangtze River, are discussed based on the stochastic analysis, wavelet analysis and set pair analysis. The results show that the annual runoff sequences in main rivers have outstanding treads, the different periodicities and the positive persistence structure, the periodicities are unequal in time, the auto correlation and cross correlation between the annual runoff sequences exist, and the spatial distribution of low runoff and high runoff is consistent.