长江中下游河道崩岸预测方法

为分析三峡水库蓄水后长江中下游两岸崩塌位置，通过对崩岸特征分析，提出用稳定岸坡作为崩岸判别指标，统计了长江中下游不同河型、不同河岸地质的稳定坡比，探讨了深泓冲刷深度计算公式，据此可通过计算三峡水库蓄水后两岸实际坡比，并与稳定坡比对比，进而预测两岸崩塌位置。以荆江沙质河段为例，将预测成果与三峡水库蓄水以来实测资料对比，表明该方法合理，且该方法判别指标简单，实用性强。

Forecast Method for Bank Collapse in Middle and Lower Yangtze River (MLYZ)

In order to predict bank failure in MLYZ after the operation of Three Gorges Project (TGP), Stable Slope (SS) was introduced to distinguish whether bank collapsed based on the analysis of characteristics of bank failure. SS of different river type and geological conditions of bank was analyzed, and the calculation formulas of erosion depth of thalweg were also explored. Based on that, the Actual Slope (AS) was calculated and compared with SS, the location where bank collapsed was forecasted. Comparative analysis between prediction result and observed data of Jingjiang Reach after the operation of TGPI ndicated that the method is reasonable and applicable.