流域水资源安全评价的集对分析与可变模糊集耦合模型

流域水资源安全的定量评价对进一步提高流域水资源可持续利用水平、优化产业结构、缓解水资源供需矛盾具有重要意义.在专家咨询和调研基础上确立了流域水资源安全评价的初步指标体系,用基于加速遗传算法的模糊层次分析法筛选评价指标,构建了流域水资源安全评价指标体系及其评价等级标准,提出了用集对分析方法构造流域水资源安全评价样本符合评价等级标准的可变模糊集的相对隶属度的新方法,进而利用模糊综合评价方法建立了流域水资源安全定量评价模型(SPA-QAM).SPA-QAM在巢湖流域的实证研究结果说明,该流域处于临界安全状态,必须进一步控制人口增长、推广节水农业技术、降低万元农业产值用水量,以提高该流域水资源安全保障程度.SPA-QAM综合利用了评价指标样本值与评价标准等级之间的各单指标联系度的评价信息,评价结果合理,精度高,方法直观简便,在已知等级评价标准的各类系统综合评价问题中具有一定的应用价值.

Set Pair Analysis Based Variable Fuzzy Set Assessment Model for Watershed Water Resources Security

Quantitative assessment of watershed water resources security is very important for further increasing the sustainable utilization level of watershed water resources,optimizing the industrial structure,and releasing the conflict between supply and demand of water resources.On the basis of expert consult and water resources security investigation,the primary assessment index system of watershed water resources security is established,the index system is filtrated by the accelerating genetic algorithm based fuzzy analytic hierarchy process,and the final index system of watershed water resources security and its grading criterion are set up.A new method is presented to determine the relative membership degree function of variable fuzzy set of the assessed samples according criterion grades by using set pair analysis method,and a new quantitative assessment model of watershed water resources security, named SPA-QAM for short,is established by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.The research result of SPA-QAM applied to Chaohu watershed shows the watershed lies in the critical security state,the population growth must further be controlled,the water saving agriculture technology must be spread,and the water consumption of unit agriculture production value must be reduced in order to further heighten the safeguard degree of the watershed water resources security.SPA-QAM mines fully the information of the relationship degree function between the assessed samples and the criterion grades,the evaluation results of SPA AM are reliable and possesses higher precision. SPA-QAM is visual,simple and general,and can be applied to different comprehensive assessment problems under the known grading evaluation criterion.