基于SPA的水文预测模型评估

为了对水文预测模型的可靠性和有效程度进行评定和检验，引入集对分析(Set Pair Analysis,SPA)方法，从同、异、反3个方面刻画预测模型的误差分布情况，利用联系度描述水文预测模型的预测精度，从而建立基于集对分析的水文预测模型评估方法。通过对水文预测中的TR模型和线性模型与实测系列之间联系度的对比，对2个模型的拟合结果和预测效果进行评价，结果表明,TR模型优于线性模型。与其他水文预测模型评估方法相比，集对评估方法具有评价信息全面、计算简便和实用的特点。

Evaluation of Hydrologic Forecast Model Based on SPA

In order to evaluate the reliability and validity of hydrologic forecast model, Set Pair Analysis(SPA) method was introduced to describe the error distribution of hydrologic forecast model from identical, discrepancy and contrary and to measure the precision by correlation degree. Therefore the evaluation method of hydrologic forecast model based on SPA was built. Through comparison of correlation degree between TR model and linear model and evaluation of simulation and forecast data, the results showed the TR model is better than the linear model. Compared with other evaluation methods, the SPA possesses the characteristic of comprehensive information, simple computation and easy practical usage.