混联系统的可靠性蒙特卡诺模拟及其EB估计

在复杂的混联系统中,利用Monte Carlo方法建立随机模型,研究可靠性模拟问题,并假定该模型具有随机移走的逐步增加Type-Ⅱ截尾。采用Bayes方法与极大似然估计相结合的方法,在平方损失下,得到了混联系统部件的失效率、系统可靠度和平均寿命的经验Bayes估计。最后给出算例分析,说明该方法的正确性和可行性。

Monte Carlo Reliability Simulation and the EB Estimation of Compound System

In complex compound systems,the reliability simulation problems is researched by using Monte Carlo method to establish stochastic model. Under the assumption,the problems are studied based on progressive Type-Ⅱ censoring with random removals by using Bayes and MLE approaches. Under the squared loss,the formulae are given to calculate Empirical Bayes（ EB） estimation of the failure rate,the reliability function and mean lifetime for system. Finally,the numerical examples are given,which shows the correctness and feasibility of the method.