桥梁施工风险评估2020年度研究进展

为了解桥梁施工风险评估研究的具体内容及过去一年的发展动态，并在总结其研究内容、方法和成果的基础上更好地开展后续研究，从桥梁施工风险识别、风险概率与损失估计、风险评价与控制、动态风险评估方面着手，查阅了近期文献，并进行了分类、总结和评述。研究表明：复合风险识别方法、风险识别数据库系统及可视化不断发展；基于监测数据定量概率校正及社会损失模型构建是风险概率和损失估计的新发展；风险评价的新进展则基于聚类或数据场的风险评价新方法及模型准确度的提升；风险链式传递模型的精细化修正、基于监测数据的动态评估模型是动态风险评估的新方向。最后，对现有研究的不足和有待深化的问题提出建议，为该方向的进一步发展提供参考。

State-of-the-art review of risk assessment on bridges construction in 2020

To understand the specific contents of bridge construction risk assessment and the development trend in the past year, and to carry out the better follow-up research on the basis of summarizing the research content, methods and achievements, the recent literatures were consulted, classified, summarized and commented from four aspects of the bridge construction risk identification, risk probability and loss estimation, risk assessment and control, dynamic risk assessment. The results show that the composite risk identification method, risk identification database system and visualization were developing continuously. The quantitative probability correction based on monitoring data and the construction of social loss model were the new development of risk probability and loss estimation. The new development of risk assessment was based on clustering or data field risk assessment method and the improvement of model accuracy. The fine modification of risk chain transferring model and dynamic evaluation model based on monitoring data were the new directions of dynamic risk assessment. Finally, some suggestions were put forward for the shortcomings of the existing research and the further development of this direction, which can be references for the work to be done in the future.