K-OUT-OF-N（F）C输油管道系统的可靠性计算

用K -OUT -OF -N(F)C系统来描述输油管道系统 ,利用概率理论和Markov链的有关性质推导出K -OUT -OF -N(F)C输油管道系统可靠度的精确计算公式和近似计算公式 ,并通过算例对精确计算公式和近似计算公式进行了比较 ,得出了近似计算公式的误差比较小 ,可以应用于工程中 ,并且通过数值计算得出n在大于 10时 ,利用近似公式计算K -OUT -OF -N(F)C输油管道系统的可靠度的结论 ,有益于对输油管道系统的可靠性进行合理的、整体性的评价 ,为输油管道的安全运行提供有效理论依据。

Reliable Calculation for K - OUT - OF - N(F)C Petroleum Pipeline System

Petroleum pipeline system was depicted by K-OUT-OF-N(F)C system. Precise calculative formula and approximate calculative formula of reliability were obtained by using probability theory and the character about Markov chain. It was concluded that the error of approximate calculative formula was very small by comparing the two kinds of formula through calculative example, which could be applied in the engineering. The conclusion that reliable extent of K-OUT-OF-N(F)C petroleum pipeline system was calculated by using approximate calculative formula when n is more than 10. This helps to evaluate reliability of petroleum pipeline system reasonably and entirely. Effective theory is offered for the fail-safe operation of petroleum pipeline. This valued scientific management of the petroleum pipeline system.