底水油藏水平井开发见水后生产动态预测

水平井技术是开发底水油藏、延长油井见水时间与提高底水油藏采收率的一项重要技术，但是水平井见水后的动态预测与控制是这项技术的难点。在前人研究的基础上建立了一个水平井开发底水油藏的简化物理模型，并从此模型出发经过推导与简化得到了一个简单易行的水平井开发底水油藏见水后动态生产规律的预测方法，编制了计算机程序，结合华北任丘油田水平实际生产情况进行了预测分析与应用。从实例预测对比结果可以看出，该方法预测精度令人满意。

Performance Prediction of Horizontal Well after Water Breakthrough

Horizontal well is an important technology to develop oil reservoir with bottom water, delay the water breakthrough of oil well and improve the oil recovery rate. However, it is difficult to control and forecast the production performance of oil well after water breakthrough. In this paper we present a simplified physical model to develop oil reservoir with bottom water by drilling horizontal wells. On the basis of the previous model, we've put forward a practical approach to forecast the production performance of a horizontal well after water breakthrough in oil reservoir with bottom water and have developed the corresponding application software. The prediction data of Renqiu oil field goes well with the real production data. It shows that the approach presented in this paper is both satisfactory and practical.