| 基于未确知模拟信息的河流水质风险评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 李如忠,钱家忠,汪家权.基于未确知模拟信息的河流水质风险评价[J].武汉理工大学学报,2005,27(1):62-66. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李如忠 钱家忠 汪家权 |
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| 作者单位： | 合肥工业大学资源与环境工程学院,合肥,230009 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(40202027，50379003)，合肥工业大学科学研究发展基金(030701F). |
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| 摘 要： | 在定义水环境系统未确知参数和河流水质未确知风险概念的基础上，运用未确知数学理论，建立了突发性泄漏情形下污染物运移、扩散和转化规律的二维河流水质未确知模拟模型和水质风险可靠度计算模型。根据河流水质模拟结果，运用未确知风险可靠度计算模型对突发性水质风险进行评价。实例研究表明，以未确知数学理论研究河流水质风险问题，理论上是可行的，评价结果是可信的。
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| 关 键 词： | 未确知信息 未确知风险 未确知模拟模型 可靠度 |
| 文章编号： | 1671-4431(2005)01-0062-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年10月14 |
Sudden-risk Analysis of River Water Quality Based on Unascertained Simulation Information |
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| LI Ru-zhong,QIAN Jia-zhong,WANG Jia-quan.Sudden-risk Analysis of River Water Quality Based on Unascertained Simulation Information[J].Journal of Wuhan University of Technology,2005,27(1):62-66. |
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| Authors: | LI Ru-zhong QIAN Jia-zhong WANG Jia-quan |
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| Abstract: | Based on the unascertained characteristics of river water environmental system, such two concepts as unascertained parameters of water quality system and unascertained risk of river water quality are defined. On the basis of it, an unascertained river water quality model for simulating the transport and diffusion of pollutant accident leakage and a model for ~evaluating the risk of river water quality exceeding a criterion are established by means of unascertained mathematical theories. According to the simulation information of river water quality, sudden-risk of river water quality can be assessed. Study result showed that it is feasible in theory and reliable on conclusion using unascertained mathematical theories to simulate river water quality and evaluate its risk. |
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| Keywords: | unascertained information unascertained risk unascertained water quality model credible degree |
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