| 基于BP神经网络的长江流域人口预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 罗荣桂,黄敏镁. 基于BP神经网络的长江流域人口预测研究[J]. 武汉理工大学学报, 2004, 26(10): 90-93 |
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| 作者姓名： | 罗荣桂 黄敏镁 |
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| 作者单位： | 武汉理工大学管理学院,武汉,430070 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部科学技术重点项目 (0 0 92 ) |
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| 摘 要： | 人口系统是一个非常复杂的非线性系统．对人口数量的准确预测能为生态经济可持续发展计划的制定提供重要依据。建立了一维时间序列的长江流域人口数量的BP神经网络模型．根据1988～2001年长江流域人口统计数据．借助Matlab6.5软件进行预测．并与指数平滑预测、自回归模型、Logistic模型的预测结果进行比较．结果表明应用BP神经网络对人口数量的预测精度更高、效果更好。
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| 关 键 词： | BP神经网络 人口预测 时间序列 长江流域 |
| 文章编号： | 1671-4431(2004)10-0090-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-04-16 |
Study on Population Prediction of Yangtze Basin Based on BP Neural Network |
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| LUO Rong-gui,HUANG Min-mei. Study on Population Prediction of Yangtze Basin Based on BP Neural Network[J]. Journal of Wuhan University of Technology, 2004, 26(10): 90-93 |
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| Authors: | LUO Rong-gui HUANG Min-mei |
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| Abstract: | The population system is a very complicated nonlinear system and therefore an accurate prediction of population will be helpful to the planning of sustainable development of bio-economy. The time series model of population prediction of Yangtze Basin based on BPNN was established. According to the statistics on population from 1988 to 2001 and with the help of Matlab6.5, the forecasting result was more precise and effective than traditional prediction methods, such as Exponential Smoothing, Autoregressive Model, Logistic Model, etc. |
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| Keywords: | BP neural network(BPNN) population prediction time series Yangtze basin |
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