应用高最优容限模型分析北美大停电机理若干问题的探讨

在回顾标准H.O.T.模型建立过程的基础上,完善模型参数的估计方法.采用1984-1999年美国西部电网（W.S.C.C.）和北美东北电网（N.P.C.C.）的停电统计数据,结合标准H.O.T.模型,进行对比性分析.分析结果与W.S.C.C.的实际数据吻合,但与N.P.C.C.的实际数据有一定偏离.为此,提出了模型参数选择方法和模型与实际电网对应技术,认为标准的H.O.T.模型需要进一步完善,以满足实际运行数据的分析,并提出应用H.O.T.模型分析大停电事故的一些思路.

Investigations of applying highly optimized tolerance model to North America Blackouts mechanism analysis

The model parameters estimation method is improved based on the review of the standard H.O.T.model establishment.Further,the power law characteristics are studied and compared,based on the standard H.O.T.model combing with all power outages data,ranging from 1984 to 1999,in the Western power grid（western system coordinating council,W.S.C.C.）,and the northeast power grid（Northeast Power Coordinating Council,N.P.C.C）.The results show that the model agrees closely with the W.S.C.C.data but not exactly the N.P.C.C data.The model parameters choice methods and the techniques of mapping the abstract model to the real power grids are presented.It is shown that a great deal of details needs to improve when applying the standard H.O.T.model to analyze the real blackout data.Finally,some possible research work using H.O.T.model to analyze power system blackouts is proposed.