1990—2015年宁波市热岛效应特征与人口资源环境分析

针对目前城市中心越来越明显的城市热岛效应，基于Landsat系列数据和MODIS遥感数据，以宁波市中心城区为研究区域，运用地理信息系统技术和Pearson相关性分析方法，进行地表温度与其他因素的长时间序列的相关性变化分析。结果表明：1990-2015年间，宁波市中心城区热岛效应变化显著；其地表温度与NDVI呈负相关性，与NDBI呈正相关性；地表温度与GDP呈正相关性，并在2010年达到最大值；人口规模与城乡之间的差距不会直接导致城市热岛效应，政府的环境政策是城市热岛的主要影响因素。根据区域所处的发展水平不同，政府环境保护态度、人口规模发展与城乡差异存在复杂的影响关系。研究表明基于单窗算法的地表温度反演技术分析城市热岛效应变化的驱动因素具有一定可行性。

Analysis on the Evolution of Heat Island Effect and Its Influencing Factors in Ningbo Central City from 1990 to 2015

With the development of urban modernization, urban heat island effect has increasingly intensified its influence on human health, climate, resources and environment, which has become a huge environmental problem facing urban development today. In view of the increasingly obvious urban heat island effect in the urban center, based on Landsat series data and MODIS remote sensing data, this study took the downtown area of Ningbo as the study area, and applied GIS technology and Pearson correlation analysis method to analyze the correlation change between the surface temperature and other factors in the long time series. The results show that from 1990 to 2015, the heat island effect changed significantly in the downtown area of Ningbo. The surface temperature is negatively correlated with NDVI and positively correlated with NDBI. The surface temperature is positively correlated with GDP, reaching its maximum value in 2010. Population size and the gap between rural and urban areas will not directly lead to the urban heat island effect. The study shows that the surface temperature inversion technology based on the single window algorithm analysis the driving factors of urban heat island effect change has certain feasibility. This study can alleviate the planning of Ningbo downtown area benefit of heat island advice, in order to alleviate the regional environmental change.