| 基于模糊理论的气象科研项目风险与绩效评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙大松,;骆海英,;周杰,;于玉斌.基于模糊理论的气象科研项目风险与绩效评估[J].南京信息工程大学学报,2014(3):275-279. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙大松 ;骆海英 ;周杰 ;于玉斌 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]南京信息工程大学信息与控制学院,南京210044; [2]中国气象局培训中心,北京100044 |
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| 基金项目： | 公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY200906043） |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对项目风险进行综合分析、审定,确立一种气象科研项目的立项风险评估指标及体系的准则;从风险角度出发,构建出一组多级指标的项目风险评估指标体系;采用定性和定量相结合的方法,提出一种基于模糊理论的风险评估体系和模型,对科研项目的立项进行综合评估,给出评估意见,给决策提供指导意见;同时,提出一种气象科研项目绩效考核及推广方法.
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| 关 键 词： | 模糊理论 风险评估 层次分析 绩效考核 项目推广 |
Risk and performance assessment of meteorological research projects based on fuzzy theory |
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| Affiliation: | SUN Dasong,LUO Haiying,ZHOU Jie,YU Yubin(1 School of Information ＆ Control,Nanjing University of Information Science ＆ Technology,Nanjing 210044;2 China Meteorological Administration Training Center, Beijing 100044) |
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| Abstract: | The initiation risk and performance assessment of meteorological research projects are studied in this paper,with 51 meteorological projects supported by the special scientific research fund of public welfare profession,initiated by the ministry of science and technology,as assessment objects. The risk evaluation index system is built through comprehensive analysis and judgment from aspects of applicant background, technological difficulty, expected achievement and management control.A risk evaluation model is proposed based on fuzzy theory,to assess the initiation risk of the meteorological projects,and 51 projects are therefore evaluated to provide references for decision making.The performance and promotion value appraisal method is put forward based on AHP,and the promotion values of the 51 meteorological projects are assessed using this multi-index evaluation method. |
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| Keywords: | fuzzy theory risk assessment analytic hierarchy process performance assessment project promotion |
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