基于非序贯蒙特卡洛的电网调度风险评估

针对电网调度风险评估计算量大和重复采样的问题,提出了一种基于非贯序蒙特卡洛的电网调度风险评估方法.将解析法和方差减小技术引入到传统的非序贯蒙特卡洛模拟法中,使用解析法来减少单次抽样模拟所需的时间.并采用等分抽样法在保证计算精度的同时减少抽样次数,从而提高电网风险评估的效率.在IEEE RTS系统上的仿真测试结果表明,所提出的方法能同时兼顾精度和效率,且相对于采用均匀抽样的非序贯蒙特卡洛模拟法具有更高的评估效率.

Risk assessment of power network dispatching based on non-sequential Monte Carlo

Aiming at the problem of large calculation amount and repeated sampling in the risk assessment of power network dispatching, a risk assessment method for power network dispatching based on non-sequential Monte Carlo was proposed, and an analytical method and a variance reduction technique were introduced into traditional non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation method. The analytical method was introduced to reduce the time required for single sampling simulation, and the aliquot sampling method was used to ensure the calculation accuracy and reduce the sampling number so as to improve the risk assessment efficiency of power network. The simulation test results on IEEE RTS system show that the as-proposed method has high accuracy and efficiency, and exhibits higher assessment efficiency than the non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation method by uniform sampling.