边坡风险评价动态模型的构建及其应用

针对现有风险评价方法中的缺陷,结合物元可拓法和马尔科夫链法,从风险的概念出发,提出了一种新的边坡风险评价模型,构建风险矩阵完成从定性到定量的集成评价,将现场监测数据纳入到风险评价体系中,动态追踪和预测边坡风险变化的规律和趋势.该方法在充分认识风险的本质和相互联系后,对边坡系统的整体风险进行了动态分析,结果表明,该方法提高了风险评价结果的时效性和可靠性,预测结果也更加准确客观,具有良好的实际应用价值.

Establishment and application of dynamic model for slope risk evaluation

Aiming at the defects in the existing risk assessment methods, a new model for slope risk assessment was proposed from the angle of risk concept in combination with the matter-element extension method and Markov chain method. The risk matrix was established to complete the integration evaluation from qualitative to quantitative aspects, the field monitoring data were brought into the risk assessment system, and the change rules and trends of slope risk were dynamically tracked and predicted. After fully understanding the risk nature and interrelation, the overall slope risk was dynamically analyzed in the proposed method. The results show that the proposed method can improve the timeliness and reliability of risk assessment results, the prediction results is more accurate and objective, and the proposed method has a good practical application value.