基于潜周期模型的两种群食饵-捕食者模型的参数估计

给出了一种两种群食饵-捕食者模型参数估计的两阶段方法。考虑到食饵-捕食者模型解的周期性,首先用潜周期模型来逼近观测序列,然后将模型参数的非线性最小二乘估计问题转化为一个线性最小二乘估计。两阶段法求解过程中不需要数值求解微分方程,具有计算方便,能同时得出参数的估计值及其置信区间的优点,改进了现有算法只能得到参数点估计的不足。算例结果表明,该算法误差很小,比现有算法的精度大大提高。

Parameter Estimation in Two Species Predator-prey Equations by Using Hidden Periodic Model

In this paper,the method of Hidden Periodic Model was used to study the parameters estimation in two species predator-prey model.Since the two species predator-prey model has periodic solutions,the method of Hidden Periodic Model was first used to approximate the original data.And then the non-linear least square was transformed into a simple least square method.This estimating method was called as two-stage estimation(TSE).TSE does not need numerical solution of the ODE and is easy to carried out.Especially,we may have the interval estimation of the parameters that modified the existing algorithm.The simulation result showed that the errors were much smaller than the published study(eg,see4]).