舰船装备研制的风险分析与处理

为进一步促进风险管理方法和手段在舰船领域中的广泛应用，针对舰船装备研制中的风险决策和分析进行了研究．概述了舰船研制过程中存在的基本风险成分以及各风险基本成分之间的相互关系．对不同的风险成分给出了相应的进行风险量化分析的方法，同时探讨了进行风险分析与决策过程中如何确立风险判据的问题，并分析了2种常用的风险判据．在此基础上，探讨了风险处理的基本原则与管理手段，给出了舰船研制过程中风险处理的基本思路和做法．这种风险处理方法在实际应用中证明是切实可行的．

Analysis and management of risk in developing warship equipment

The risk policy decision and risk analysis in developing warship equipment are tentatively researched to promote using risk management methods in the realm of warship equipment. Basic risk factors and the relation of the factors are approached, and the method of risk quantitative analysis for different risk factors is provided. How to establish risk criterion in risk analysis and risk policy decision also is approached and two kinds of risk criteria are analyzed. At the same time, basic principles and methods in risk management are discussed, and the basic thinking and methods of risk management in developing warship equipment are given. This method of risk management is proved feasible.