| 灰色理论在城市年用电量预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 张鑫,韦钢,周敏,杨熠娟. 灰色理论在城市年用电量预测中的应用[J]. 上海电力学院学报, 2002, 18(2): 9-12 |
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| 作者姓名： | 张鑫 韦钢 周敏 杨熠娟 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 上海电力学院,上海,200090
2. 上海市南供电公司,上海,201100 |
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| 摘 要： | 研究了灰色预测GM（1，1）模型及其几种改进模型在城市年用电量预测中的应用。以实际算例为基础，分析了几种模型的预测结果并进行比较。结果表明：不同的改进模型预测的精度不同，所有改进后的模型比基本模型预测的精度高、误差小。并经不同的算例分析得出：不同变化规律的负荷应该用不同的改进模型。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色理论 电力系统 电量预测 灰色模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-4729(2002)02-0009-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2002-11-27 |
Application of the Grey Theory in ForecastingCity Annual Electricity Consumption |
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| ZHANG Xin,WEI Gang,ZHOU Min and YANG Yi-juan. Application of the Grey Theory in ForecastingCity Annual Electricity Consumption[J]. Journal of Shanghai University of Electric Power, 2002, 18(2): 9-12 |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Xin WEI Gang ZHOU Min YANG Yi-juan |
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| Affiliation: | ZHANG Xin 1,WEI Gang 1,ZHOU Min 2,YANG Yi-juan 2 |
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| Abstract: | This paper studies the application of the grey forecasting GM(1.1) and some improved models in annual electricity consumption forecasting in a city. Based on an example, comparing the forecasting results of the models, it is found that different improved models have different forecasting results, and the results of all improved models are more accurate than those of the primary model, different improved models should be applied to the load of different varing patterns. |
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| Keywords: | grey theory power system electricity consumption forecasting grey model |
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