| 基于组合电力负荷预测模型的电力经济调度研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄琼,丁坦.基于组合电力负荷预测模型的电力经济调度研究[J].湖北工业大学学报,2009,24(5):39-42. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄琼 丁坦 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 湖北工业大学电气与电子工程学院,湖北,武汉,430068;武汉供电公司,湖北,武汉,430013
2. 湖北工业大学电气与电子工程学院,湖北,武汉,430068 |
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| 基金项目： | 湖北省科技厅自然科学基金重点项目，湖北省教育厅重点项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据武汉地区近10 a电力负荷使用情况对武汉供电公司电力负荷预测进行研究,以此为经济调度及负荷管理提供依据.选用基于GM(1,1)模型和一元线性回归法的组合负荷预测模型.对武汉地区每月最大负荷进行预测;算例证明组合预测模型有效提高了电力系统负荷预测能力,且证明了该组合电力预测模型对发电量预测同样具有可行性.
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| 关 键 词： | 负荷预测 组合预测 灰色理论 GM(1 1)模型 |
Research on Power Economic Dispatch Based on Model of Combination Forecasting of Power Load |
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| HUANG Qiong,DING Tan.Research on Power Economic Dispatch Based on Model of Combination Forecasting of Power Load[J].Journal of Hubei University of Technology,2009,24(5):39-42. |
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| Authors: | HUANG Qiong DING Tan |
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| Affiliation: | HUANG Qiong1,2,DING Tan1(1 School of Electrical and Electronic Engin.,Hubei Univ.of Technology,Wuhan 430068,China,2 Wuhan Power Supply Company,Wuhan 430013,China) |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,a research on power load of the power supply company of Wuhan is done to provide a basis for economic dispatch and load management of the power supply company of Wuhan based on records of the use of electric load in the past decade in wuhan.Monthly peak load in Wuhan is forecasted by a method based on gray theory and a linear regression method of load forecasting model.Examples prove that this combination forecasting model can effectively improve accuracy and reliability of power load forecast... |
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| Keywords: | load forecasting combination forecasting grey theory GM(1 1) model |
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