基于负荷混沌特性的改进Lyapunov指数预测法

针对目前常用负荷预测方法多依赖主观经验，为了提高预测精度，从相空间重构理论出发。结合负荷序列的混沌特性，提出了一种计算最大Lyapunov指数的改进算法。改进算法中引入一种取舍规则，提高了最大Lyapunov指数提取精度。利用改进算法建立实际电力月负荷预测模型，实际应用结果表明该模型具有一定实用价值。

Method of Forecasting Improved Lyapunov Exponent Based on Chaotic Load

To solve the problem that at present common used load analyzing methods mostly rely on subjective experiences and improve forecasting accuracy,based on phase space reconstruction and combining with the chaotic characteristic of load series,an improved algorithm to calculate maximal Lyapunov exponent is proposed.In the improved algorithm a rule of acceptance and rejection is introduced to improve accuracy of extracting maximal Lyapunov exponent.A practical month forecasting model is built based on this impro...