基于LEAP模型的京津冀地区道路交通节能减排情景预测

为了解决道路交通带来的能源消耗、温室气体及大气污染物排放问题,采用情景分析法,以京津冀地区为例,应用长期能源替代规划系统(LEAP)模型构建了京津冀地区道路交通部门的能源与环境排放模型,对不同情景下2015—2030年的能源消耗、CO_2及污染物的排放情况进行了预测分析.结果表明:京津冀地区各政策情景中,提高燃油经济性情景的节能效果明显,节能率为22.4%.高排放车的淘汰短期节能效果最佳,节能率为19.1%,但长期效果不明显.北京市新能源汽车推广情景的CO_2、NOx长期减排效果最佳,天津市、河北省提高燃料经济性情景的CO_2、CO、NOx、PM2.5减排效果最好.相对于基准情景,2030年综合情景下京津冀地区的节能率为37.1%,CO_2减排率可达到36.8%,其中对污染物CO、HC的减排效果最佳,减排率为45.7%、43.8%.

Scenarios Prediction of Energy Saving and Emission Reduction in the Road Transport Sector of Beijing-Tianjin-Heibei Region

In order to solve problems of energy consumption, greenhouse gases and air pollutants emissions caused by road transport, an urban road transport model for energy consumption and emission was developed in this paper based on long range energy alternatives planning system ( LEAP ) . And then the energy consumption reduction potential and the emissions reduction potential of CO2 and air pollutants of different control strategies and policies using scenario analysis in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei in 2015-2030 were assessed. Results show that the advanced fuel economy scenario is the most effective measure to reducing energy demand, and it can save 22. 4% of energy consumption. The high-emission vehicle elimination can reduce energy consumption more effectively in short-term than in long-term, the ratio of saving energy is 19. 1%. Further intensifying efforts to green energy vehicle promotion scenario would have better effect on reduction of CO2 and NOx emission in long-term in Beijing. Advanced fuel economy has a better effect on reduction of CO2 , CO, NOx and PM2. 5 emission in Tianjin and Hebei. Comparing with BAU scenario , the Integrated Scenario saved 37. 1% of energy consumption in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei areas in 2030, and the emissions of CO2 decreased by 36. 8%. It had a better effect on reduction of CO and HC, and the ratio of emission reduction was 45. 7% and 43. 8% respectively.