基于云模型的道路交通安全等级评价

针对道路交通安全等级评价具有的模糊性和随机性特性,提出了道路交通安全等级云模型评价方法.通过分析道路交通安全的影响因素,确定评价指标及标准;计算出每个评价指标的云数字特征,生成各指标云模型;评价实测数据,由最大隶属度的加权值确定道路安全等级.对西安市二环路实测数据进行评价,评价结果为:东二环、南二环、北二环路道路交通较安全,隶属度U(Ⅱ)分别为:0.404 8、0.609 8和0.497 6;西二环路道路交通基本安全,隶属度U(Ⅲ)为0.621 2.对比灰色评价法和模糊数学法,云模型法不仅能反映出道路交通安全等级,更能精确反映所隶属等级的确定度.

Road Traffic Safety Evaluation Based on Cloud Mode

A cloud model evaluation method was proposed according to the characteristics of fuzziness and randomness in road traffic safety evaluation. The evaluation indexes and standards were determined by analyzing the factors effected road traffic safety. The cloud model of each factor on each level was generated by each factor’ s cloud digital characters. The road traffic safety levels were determined by the weighted average value of the maximum membership. Data measured in the second ring road of Xi’ an were evaluated. The results showed that road traffic safety was relatively safein East Second Ring, South Second Ring and North Second Ring, and the membership of U(Ⅱ) were 0. 404 8, 0. 609 8 and 0. 497 6 respectively. Road traffic safety was basically safe in West Second Ring, and the membership of U(Ⅲ) was 0. 621 2. The results were compared with Grey evaluation method and Fuzzy Mathematics method. Not only the evaluation method based on the cloud model can determine road traffic safety, but also can determine the membership more accurately.