江苏省南水北调受水区需水计算模型初探

选取南水北调东线江苏省受水区作为研究区域，对受水区2020规划年用水户进行概化，概化为工业用水户23个、农业用水户92个、生活用水户25个、生态用水户11个和船闸用水户23个．建立研究区需水模型，计算本研究区在3种年型下的需水量．研究表明：2020规划水平年在P=95％、P=75％和P=50％年型下，受水区需水量分别为239．15×10^8m3、195．94×10^8m3和184．76×10^8m3；与参考值相比，文章计算需水量相对误差分别为＋12．53％（P=95％）、＋2．64％（P=75％）和＋6．58％（P=50％），误差不大，说明文章建立的需水模型能较好的模拟研究区的需水量．

A Preliminary Discussion about the Water Demand Calculation Model of the South-To-North Water Transfer Beneficiary Region in Jiangsu Province

The paper takes the south-to-north water transfer beneficiary region in Jiangsu province as the research region. Water users in the benefited area for the planning year of 2020 were generalized as 23 industrial water users, 92 agricultural water users, 25 life water users, 11 ecological water users and 23 lock water users. We established water demand model to calculate water demand of the 2020 year in three different types of year. The research showed that in P=95% year the water demand was 23. 915 billion m3, 18. 476 billion ma in P=75% year and 18. 476 billion ma in P=50% year. Compared with reference value, the relative errors of this paper were 12. 53% （P=95%）, 2.64% （P=75%） and 6. 58%（P= 50%）. Small errors showed that this model could simulate water demand of our research area well.